Bank shortfall
$16k
Add this capital, lower the unit, or accept a higher risk band.
Public vs Pro
Free Observatory uses exact house edge, system edge-per-TC, true-count frequencies, and three named ramps. Signed-in Pro members continue in the Diamond Observatory for editable ramps, custom systems, Monte Carlo, and saved spreads.
Salon IV / Diamond
Plan the bankroll, wager size, goal, and time horizon from a real bet-ramp model — not a typed-in Advantage %.
Verdict
Resize First
Risk
28.1%
Planner
Pick a rules preset and counting system. EV moves with house edge, edge-per-TC, ramp, and bankroll.
House edge
Updating…
6D · pen 4.5
| True count | Frequency | Player edge | Spots | Units / spot | Table bet | EV / hr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <= -2 | 20.5% | -1.75% | Sit out | 0 | Sit out | $0 |
| -1 | 16.4% | -1.00% | 1 | 1 | 1 × $25 | -$3 |
| 0 | 26.0% | -0.50% | 1 | 1 | 1 × $25 | -$2 |
| +1 | 16.4% | -0.00% | 1 | 1 | 1 × $25 | -$0 |
| +2 | 9.0% | +0.50% | 2 | 2 | 2 × $50 | $3 |
| +3 | 5.1% | +1.00% | 2 | 3 | 2 × $75 | $6 |
| +4 | 2.9% | +1.50% | 2 | 5 | 2 × $125 | $8 |
| +5 | 1.6% | +2.00% | 2 | 6 | 2 × $150 | $7 |
| +6 and up | 2.0% | +2.75% | 2 | 8 | 2 × $200 | $16 |
Bankroll Verdict
The bankroll is carrying too much risk for the stated unit. Lower the unit or bring more capital.
Risk target
5.0%
Win rate / hr
$35
SD $815/hr
Risk of ruin
28.1%
Hi-Lo · standard ramp
Required bank
$28k
5.0% long-run risk
Bank shortfall
$16k
Add this capital, lower the unit, or accept a higher risk band.
Target unit
$11
Unit size for 5.0% risk with the current bankroll.
Kelly pressure
1.58x
Above full Kelly; growth and survival both deteriorate.
Trip Outcome
A profitable plan can still lose money over a normal trip. This is the part variance does not let you skip.
600 rounds planned
Expected trip
$281
8.0 hr
95% trip range
-$4.3k to $4.9k
Approx. mean +/- 2 SD
Trip ruin
0.0%
Before the planned stop
Goal odds
90.4%
Reach $15k
Performance Quality
SCORE compares opportunity quality. N0 estimates how long it takes the edge to rise above one standard deviation.
SCORE
25
DI 5.0
N0
40,449
539 hours
Kelly unit
$16
0.13% of bankroll
Bank for 1%
$44k
5%: $28k